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What a great week for sportsbooks, as favorites went 5-9 against the spread by the lines I used in my column last week. We went 2-3 on our top five picks, as the gave us a bad beat against the , and the failed to show up against the . Additionally, I made my pick when was not a member of the . I had no idea he would inject the franchise with an incredible amount of energy like he did.We've had a few bad weeks but I know a turnaround is coming. This week is sure to be a fun one, as the take a trip to Kansas City to take on the , and Newton hosts his former head coach in Ron Rivera.Let's jump into the picks. Peep the season stats below.Top five picks record: 28-22Overall ATS record: 69-80-1Straight Ramon Urias Jersey up record: 92-57-12020 ATS record: 125-120-9(2 official picks mi sed due to COVID rescheduling)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox) I don't know if Newton is a legitimate starting signal-caller right now. What I do know, however, is that he has injected some serious energy into this franchise. Even with under center for the Cardinals last week, I did not expect the Panthers to do what they did. Bank of America Stadium is going to be rocking with Newton starting in his first game for the Panthers since Sept. 12, 2019, and the fact that Rivera is returning is just the cherry on top. Carolina's offense Albert Pujols Jersey may not score 34 points again, but the No. 2 defense in the league is going to be juiced. Washington is 1-3 on the road this season and has scored exactly 10 points in each of its last two road games. is exciting to watch but the defense lost a leader in last week and also has still out due to a jaw injury. Again, I'm not sure how the Panthers will fare as we finish out the season, but I'm going to lean into the momentum Newton is carrying with him into this matchup. Panthers -3.5 right now is +100, so wait to see if it drops to -3. I'd much rather have it there.The pick anthers -3.5Projected scoreanthers 23-17Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) The Dolphins defense is returning to form, as this unit has played well over the past couple weeks. They have recorded 9.0 sacks since Week 9, which is tied for most in the NFL during that timeframe, and have recorded six takeaways over the past two games, which is again tied for the most in the NFL in that timeframe. As for the Jets, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are coming off of a 45-17 beatdown suffered at the hands of the , and are allowing 32.9 points and 417.1 yards per game -- both of which rank dead last in the league and are the worst in franchise history. is going to be starting for the Jets for the first time since being traded from the . He's going to be under some dure s, however, as the Dolphins have gotten pre sure on a league-high 35 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, according to TruMedia. The Jets have allowed pre sure on 38 percent of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league. Three of the last four lo ses for the Jets have come by at least 15 points, so I'll lay three points with and Co. The pick olphins -3Projected scoreolphins 24-10Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) While it was against the Jets, the Bills looked great on both sides of the ball last week. I'm ready to forget about that bizarre lo s to the a couple of weeks ago. As for the Colts, they are 0-4 this season against teams with a winning record, and 5-1 against teams with a losing record.In a league chock full of offense, there aren't many defenses I trust. However, the Bills are one of them. They lead the league in points per game ( Keith Hernandez Jersey 15), yards per play (4.6), yards allowed per game (274.1), third down percentage (29.5) and takeaways (24). Buffalo has the third-best run defense in the league and the second-best pa s defense. I think they can contain . As far as the Nolan Arenado Jersey offense goes, the Bills average a second-best 31.1 points per game. Even after putting up just six points against the Jaguars!The pick:Bills -7Projected score:Bills 31-21Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox) Listen, I don't want to be one of those people who look into one game more than one should, but maybe the 49ers got back on track vs. the Rams. The 49ers ran the ball 44 times for 156 yards, the defense forced two turnovers, recorded a huge performance in the receiving game and threw two touchdowns and just four incompletions. That looked like the 2019 49ers team that went to the Super Bowl -- which is . The 49ers have the potential to be one of the better teams in the NFL. They just have to rely on the run game and the physicality of the offensive and defensive fronts. The entire Rams front ended up on the turf. Rich (@richjmadrid) The 49ers are 3-1 on the road this season, and 15-5 away from San Francisco since 2019. That's tied for the third-best away record in that timeframe. I don't think the 49ers blow out the Jags, but I'll take six points.The pick:49ers -6Projected score:49ers 24-17Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) The Raiders are coming off of a 41-14 blowout lo s to the Chiefs, but they were down just three points halfway through the third quarter. Like the Raiders, the Bengals have recorded two embarra sing lo ses back-to-back. The first came against and the Jets, and then Cincy was dominated by and the , 41-16. To make matters worse, the Bengals just had their bye week. Normally you would think that helps a team regroup, but teams coming off of a bye week are 5-11 ATS this season. has struggled a bit over his past few games. He's tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with (11), and has thrown an interception in five straight games -- which is the longest active streak in the NFL. Defensively, Willie McGee Jersey only the Jets have allowed more points per game and yards per game than the Bengals have since Halloween. I view this as a bounce-back matchup for the Raiders. The pick:Raiders +1Projected score:Raiders 27-24 28-24 over (+7)Saints (+1.5) 27-23 over Eagles (-4.5) 28-20 over Browns 26-17 over (+11.5)Titans 30-21 over (+10) (+2) 28-27 over Cowboys (+2.5) 35-31 over ChiefsCardinals (-2.5) 24-21 over (-5.5) 29-21 over 30-23 over (+11) |
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发表于 2024-3-3 10:57:26